Scotland mortality 2022 week 40
Summary of Scotland’s mortality and excess mortality. All data mortality and population data via National Records of Scotland
Overall
A really awful couple of weeks. We’re right into the period where National Records of Scotland (NRS) decision to included 2021 into their five year average (and thereby normalise the massive excess mortality we saw that autumn) is having the biggest impact. Our comparison (the 2015-19 average) shows a bigger excess than theirs, but even their figures shows huge excess just now.
Previous Week 39 was revised up to +19% (203 extra deaths)
Week 40 initially +23% (237 extra deaths)
440 more deaths than normal, in two weeks. Total deaths in Week 40 were 1,275, which are MIDWINTER levels, already in early autumn.
Mortality was already bad in recent weeks, but the last couple of weeks saw a huge rise. Coincidentally this happened exactly aligned with the new booster (excess death percentage in blue, total vaccinations in grey). Correlation is not causation….
Excess mortality by Cause of death
The ab
The above shows how excess deaths have built up in Scotland this year.
Initially ‘Others’ were excess, and everything else negative.
Then suddenly COVID and Respiratory deaths went positive (in spite of 14 million ‘protections’ administered.
Then Heart Attacks and Strokes flipped from neutral to notably excess
Most recently everything has been excess - although still mainly ‘Others’ - hence we see significant excess mortality piling up.
In total 7.3% excess deaths, all happening at home, and predominantly ‘Others’ as the cause, and the pharmaceutical protection seemingly failing to stem the number of COVID/Respiratory excess being recorded.
In this most recent week you can see everything is excess, other than cancer deaths which are in line with the 5 year average.
Excess mortality by Location of death
Nothing more to say other than people continue to die in excess primarily at home. Either they do not have access to hospital, or died suddenly unable to reach hospital - either of which is a terrible indictment on where the ‘leadership’ of Scotland have directed things.
Excess mortality by Age of death
All of the younger age groups are now trending downward in terms of excess, but all of the older age groups are trending upward. The higher the age, the higher the excess.
This is absolutely the opposite of the stated intention. People were harangued to stay at home on the pretext of ‘saving the elderly’, monumental debts amassed, businesses closed and incalculable damage inflicted.
And the outcome?
The lines placed on the eldest groups are parallel - you can see there is NO DIFFERENCE in the rate of excess mortality in those groups, 2022 is as bad as 2021, which was as bad as 2020. We have seen some easing in the younger age groups, but the actions have done nothing to stem the excess in those most vulnerable.
Summary
This is the ‘cross chart’ showing where the excess mortality in 2022 has happened;
The older the age, the higher the excess (both absolute number AND percentage excess)
It’s mainly ‘Others’ (undefined as yet, unable to be quickly defined), then Respiratory (inc. COVID), then heart attacks and strokes.
It’s happening due to people dying at home.
We can only hope and pray this settles quickly, and we don’t have another autumn like last year. So far we are on track for 2022 excess mortality to be as bad as 2021, which in turn was as bad as 2020.
Tragic.
We’ll keep updating week by week.
Best wishes
Scottish Unity, Edinburgh Group
Thank you for collating this info and presenting it so clearly. I have been following the Scottish data [amongst others] and this is useful, if depressing, summary. Also, thanks for standing up, and speaking out.
I have been tracking the same data in Northern Ireland with similar results. Excess deaths since March +12% with some weeks being +28% against 2015-2019. Our official 5-year average includes both pandemic years so reporting lower excesses. Disproportionate excess deaths in the elderly and massive excesses in deaths at home.