Scotland mortality 2022 week 31

Summary of Scotland’s mortality and excess mortality. All data mortality and population data via National Records of Scotland

Overall

In this latest Week 31 release;

• Prior week 30 revised up to +21%! (That’s 206 more deaths than normal).

• Week 31 initially +10% (98 more deaths than normal).

In this recent trend of excess we have 2,369 more deaths than should be expected.

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Summary of Summer

In Scotland the Summer of 2020 was absolutely normal. Free movement, no masks (until government suddenly introduced this psychological tool in late July), yet excess mortality in Summer 2020 was flat - in the normal range. Since then summers have only worsened.

Looking at the above summarising the last three summers;

• Significantly more total deaths year by year.

• Excess deaths therefore are hugely higher. 2021 was by far the worst excess mortality Scotland had ever see in summer, and 2022 is exceeding that by a further 50%.

• Incredibly even ‘covid deaths’ - the things people are ‘protected from’ were higher in 2021, and 2022 is EVEN HIGHER AGAIN.

Not charted, but we have more ‘acute covid hospitalisations’ than prior years also. EVERY. SINGLE. MEASURE. is worse - yet we are told the ‘sacred cows’ have saved us, and allowed normality to return.

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Excess mortality by Location of death

Excess mortality continues to be people dying at home. Seeing the long term trend, all over locations of death are normal or close, and 98% of the excess deaths Scotland has seen were - and continue to be - deaths at home.

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Excess mortality by cause of death

‘Others’ is, as usual, the main cause of excess death, followed by heart issues, then Covid/Respiratory. In spite of summer we still see a strong trend of excess respiratory deaths, very unusual.

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Cumulative excess mortality by age

With this cumulative chart, the angle of each slope shows us the RATE that we are accumulating excess deaths. Incredibly we see that 85+ and 75-84, the rate of excess deaths is as high now as it was in Autumn 2021, which in turn was as high as Winter 2020. Yet Winter 2020 we were told was a disaster, lockdowns needed to save granny - yet today our elderly are dying at as rapid a pace as they were at that time.

Tragic, and awful misinformation by government.

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Cumulative excess mortality by age/sex

Just for awareness. In the elderly men are dying in excess more than women. Middle age the impact is around the same. Notably we have negative excess (much lower than normal) in young men, but also a sudden mortality spike in female infants. Particularly for the infants, these are very small numbers, and make dramatic looking spikes very easily, so have to interpret with caution, and monitor rather than making a conclusion.

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Infant mortality (<1 years)

Setting down again after the three recent spikes of excess mortality.

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Child mortality (1 to 14 years)

A couple of high weeks drives the average up, but most recent week is low. These are very volatile data, and expect to see settle down.

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Trend of ‘Z-Score’

The Z-Score measures how unusual a number is - it is the current deviation divided by the standard deviation, so how far away from the norm are we currently. Typically in mortality 4 standard deviations are considered concerning, very unusual.

The above is the overall trend in Scotland, and indeed Winter 2020 was just below 4 (and notably had peaked and was falling even before year end and well before lockdowns - as we demonstrated at the time, ‘cases’ growth peaked and decline before lockdowns were implemented.

However Autumn 2021 saw SEVEN as the Z-Score, far from normal, and that did indeed trigger a (so far farcical) investigation by the Scottish government, who completely ignored the unique pharmaceutical intervention that had take place as being a possible cause, not even mentioning it despite a large number of respondents to the survey noting this.

See to that now we are exceeding a Z-Score of 4 again. We have never seen a Z-Score of 4 in summer before - the previous high was 2021 (2.59), and prior to that was <1 constantly for the last 50 years. We’ve never seen excess mortality like this in summer, and it’s now two consecutive years. Can we also ignore that 2020 was normal, and each subsequent year has been worse?

We will keep publishing these analyses week by week, and developing thoughts and trends that we see.

Best wishes!

Scottish Unity, Edinburgh Group